Israel A hit on Iranian nuclear and military facilities The Middle East pushed one step to a wider and more dangerous regional war. It also has effects on Recent American diplomatic efforts Towards a deal with Tehran on its nuclear program.
Iran’s immediate response – shooting About 100 drones In Israel, many of them have been dropped – the opening maneuver appears to be; Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said His country’s forests will continue “For several days it takes.”
The conversation turned into Javed Ali, Middle East expert At the University of Michigan and a former National Security Council official during the Trump administration, to speak through why Israel has now chosen the strike and what are the effects of American policy on Iran.
Why did Israel hit now?
There was a mixture of factors that led to this moment.
One of the most urgent reasons was that the International Atomic Energy Agency report found that Iran was Moving progress towards enrichment of uranium To some extent, at least, at least, Tehran will be allowed to upgrade very quickly to an arms level. This is to push what Netanyahu said by reason to attack now – that intelligence shows that Iran is approaching a The hack is possible For a nuclear weapon.
But there is a meeting of other factors that have accumulated throughout the year and a half October 7, 2023, attack By Hamas in Israel.
Iranian agent Resistance That is, the regional groups that are in line with Iran and support them militarily by Tehran, including Hamas and Hezbollah-do not provide the same level of threat to Israel as they did in before Oct. 7 landscapes.
In the past, the Israeli attack of this kind that we see now will be it I called for a multi -directional response From all corners of the resistance – we saw this in the first days after the October 7 attack.
As of now, none of the Iranian resistance partners did anything in response to the latest blow – this, in a large part, because of the fact that Israel has succeeded in deteriorating the capabilities of this group through a series of campaigns and operations. The United States has also contributed somewhat in this effort with continuous operations against the Houthis in Yemen from March to May this year, including Hundreds of air strikes.
additional, Israel’s previous attacks on Iran In April and October 2024, it managed to destroy ballistic, ballistic and Iranian missiles into air defense systems. This is likely to play in Israeli accounts as well.
Finally, Israel knows that it has a strong supporter in the White House with President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress. Washington may not be 100 % alignment with Tel Aviv in every issue, but at the present time there are no criticism from the White House or Republican members of Congress about Israel’s attacks.
But why is the attack before the US talks planned?
The sixth round of the talks was It is scheduled to happen on June 15Under the leadership of White House envoy Steve Witkov and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. Iran has He pointed out that the talks will not happen now.
Perhaps there was some dialogue between Netanyahu and the Trump administration on the timing of the Israeli strike that preceded yesterday’s attacks, during which Israel had made it clear that it was time now to launch a completely different type of campaign to restore Iran’s nuclear program. in Registered notes On the operations of Israel, Netanyahu stated that he ordered the National Security Team to start planning a large -scale campaign against the Iranian nuclear program last November.
The White House may have retreated, saying it wanted to know if any progress could be made in conversations. Certainly, that Reported Trump told Netanyahu in a phone call on June 10 that he believed he could negotiate a deal with Tehran.
Regardless, Netanyahu is still going on the strike.
In fact, some observers assumed this The collapse of negotiations Between the United States and Iran, it may be one of Netanyahu’s intentions, which has long opposed any deal with Tehran and its two people. According to what was stated, he got angry By Trump’s reflection on this issue. During his first administration, Trump unilaterally U.S. withdrawal From a previous nuclear deal.
One of the newspapers shows pictures of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragichi and the White House special envoy Steve Witkeov, who was to meet in Amman. Morteza Nikoubazl/Nurphoto via Getty Images
What should we make the United States’ response to the strike?
The White House did not criticize Israel in its response to the strike, just mentioned it He was not involved.
In my evaluation, it seems that the White House is honest in the essence of what he says: that there was no public participation and direction with Israel during the actual strike. As for participating in any intelligence planning or participation before the strike, we may never know.
But this is largely the messages to Iran: “It didn’t attack you. Israel attacked you.”
It is clear that the United States is concerned that any response in Tehran may include American origins in the region. In the past, parts of the Iranian Al -Wakil network were struck American bases in Jordan and Iraq. Supporting this matter is a real concern in Washington is the fact that before the Israeli strike, it has already taken movements to Protect some of its origins in the region And removal of employees.
Did Iran say whether the American goals will be included in its response?
On June 11, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasrizadeh Warning that Israel Was it attacked, Tehran will respond to American employees and the rules in the region – but this has not yet happened.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khawnai and military officials should know that attacking American targets will be very risky and will lead to a great response that is likely to be more harmful than the latest Israeli attacks – including a potential deal on its nuclear program. The United States has the ability to hit Iran more difficult than Israel, whether or militarily and through Extension of penalties Which was already a very punishment for the Iranian economy.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, refers to a red line that he drew for a bomb while addressing the United Nations on September 27, 2012. Mario Tama/Getty Pictures
In the end, it will be Raw He decides to respond to Iran – and still firmly controls the Iranian National Security Agency despite his advanced life. He knows that he will have to take a thin line to avoid attracting the United States into a military campaign.
How can Iran respond in the coming weeks?
Despite the challenges facing Iran at the present time, I think, Iran should respond in a way that exceeds its previous attacks on Israel.
Reports on drone attacks against Israel on June 13 in the context Iran’s attack Against Israel in April 2024, which included Salvo Completely from approximately 300 ballistic missiles, tourist missiles and drones over several hours. Despite the damages that Israel against Iran through its series of operations, Iran Maybe still possesses Thousands or tens of thousands of these types of weapons that you can use against various targets in the region.
Iran can view the targets outside Israel, without the United States strike directly – for example, by attacking the maritime targets in the Persian Gulf and in reality. Close the Strait of Hermoz. The American military planners have been concerned about the Iranian marine attacks Using small boats To crack or attacks small weapons against shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Another option is to increase Iran from its participation in terrorist activities in the region. The agent groups may diminish in Tehran, but Iran still has Jerusalem powerThrough it, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a unconventional and unconventional war. will Jerusalem power Do you look at the targeted assassinations, bombings, or kidnappings as part of Iranian revenge options? Such tactics have been used in the past.
Beyond traditional weapons, Iran also has a very important Electronic abilities It was used against Israel, the United States, Saudi Arabia and others.
Where does this leave the US talks?
Trump seems to still open the possibility of a kind of dealing with Iran. In his statement after the Israeli attack, Tehran warned that if he did not return to the table and cut a deal, The next Israeli attack will be “More brutal.”
The attack can push Iran to re -participate in talks that appeared to be suspended in recent weeks. Certainly it seems to be to pay Trump’s messages.
However, the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists in the attack, and the apparent wounds of a negotiator, may persuade Tehran to double the road towards a nuclear weapon as the only way to deter against Israel, especially if it is suspected of involving the United States.
Javid AliAssociate Professor of Practice in Public Policy, Michigan University
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