During the presidential campaign in September, Donald Trump, the candidate at the time, was an extraordinary threat. He pledged that if California suffers from a fire in his fire during his presidency, he would have blocked the disaster from the state unless the ruler Gavin Newsum signed a document that provided more water to farmers in the central valley rich in agriculture in the state.
“if [Newsom] He does not sign those papers, we will not give him money to put out all his fires.
In the wake of the destroyer Palisades and Eaton fires in Los AngelesThe thousands of homes have destroyed and killed dozens of people over the past two weeks, Trump’s threat to help him from the Federal Emergency Management Agency again. With the outbreaks of fires, the new president rushed to blame them for the water policies in news, with his alleged claim that the state’s policy of reducing water delivery outside the Sacramento Delta to protect a type of endangered fish may have faltered on firefighting efforts. Then he seemed to repeat his threat to the social truth: “There is no water in the fire of the taps, no money in Fema.”
While Trump takes office and prepares to visit Los Angeles this week, his allies in Congress take the threat because they consider an additional bill that provides billions of dollars in aid money to shoot victims through the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. Parliament Speaker Mike Johnson, a representative from Louisiana, said he believed that there should be “conditions” on this aid.
He said in a comment to reporters last week: “It is clear that there was poor management of water resources, forest management errors, and all kinds of problems.” Even some Republicans in California, such as actors Doug Lamalva and Daril Issa, agreed that Congress must Consider reducing long -term aid.
But disaster experts say these threats are unlikely to bear fruit-or at least be difficult to achieve from many other climate policies.
“I don’t know how I stopped it as much as it makes it pain in the rear,” said Craig Vougit, who led Fema during President Barack Obama.
Trump’s difficulty is that the Fema recovery process in California has already started. President Biden issued a declaration of disasters a few hours after the start of the fires, which gave FEMA the legal authority to spend money to respond to emergency, rescue and shelter in Los Angeles, and start transferring money to victims who lost their homes and property. Even if the Congress does not send the agency to any other money, the FEMA has enough financing in the bank to meet the immediate needs of the victims. This is according to the design: When the Fema was established in 1980, the agency officials gave flexibility to quickly spread money with new disasters. Legitimates (usually) Increase the agency’s budget before each disaster season.
But the largest costs have not yet come. Fema itself does not rebuild roads or water systems in disaster affected areas. Instead, the agency offers payment of countries and cities for the money they spend on the reconstruction efforts. In order to obtain compensation, the states must provide cost estimates, and it is very early for California to assess the recovery cost.
But once the state provides these allocations, Fema does not have the power to agree to or deprive them of appreciation, according to Fugate.
“I do not say it is impossible, but it will be really difficult for any administration to try to make money arbitrarily,” he said. “It is like writing a check, it is difficult to cancel it after writing.”
More Trump can do is delay the aid process through bureaucratic channels. The Federal Office for Administration and Budget must review all the projects of more than one million dollars, and Trump can order this office to finance with the details of each request before approval. Later this year, Fema can also reduce the reconstruction costs it provides to pay, but it will remain in contact with most of the money. Trump did not mention in dozens of executive orders on the first day this week, but it signed an order to review federal policies to transport water from the Sacramento Saint -Guokin Delta, a issue of inappropriately linking it to modern fires in Los Angeles. (Trump’s transitional team did not respond to requests for clarification on the president’s threat.)
Even if Trump threw the sand in the payment gears, California may be able to deal with some delay. This country is the sixth largest economy in the world, with a budget of more than $ 300 billion, and legislators are already granted whether the supplementary state funds will be passed to help restore fires. (California Emergency Services Office did not respond to the comment.)
Forest fires also represent a lower share of disaster spending in FEMA instead of other disasters such as hurricanes and floods. FEMA spent 345 million dollars to rebuild the infrastructure of each fire since 2015, compared to an average of nearly one billion dollars per hurricane, according to FEMA data that Carneneji gathered for the gift of international peace. Fire victims have only 1 percent of FEMA’s individual aid requests since 2015.
This is partly because most fires tend to hit lower areas of the population – and because they are Insurance tends to cover a greater percentage of firefighting firesSarah Lapowitz, an uncontrolled colleague in Carnegie and a disaster financing expert, said.
She said: “It is supposed to be a three -legged stool, where Fema is located along the insurance and private funds,” she said. “For fires, people usually have a type of fire insurance, so the level of unlikely unbelievable loss may be less than a large water event.” But given the scope of loss in these urban fires, the fact that many insurance companies have withdrawn from places such as Pacific Palisades, Fema may have a larger tab this time than it was in previous fires.
Instead of the new Trump administration, Congress should worry California. During the past two decades, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development has allocated tens of billions of dollars in a long -term recovery of disasters with the blessing of Congress, including after fire such as the 2018 camp fire. Many states use these federal funds to help re -develop housing; For example, California used the largest share of Fire Camp to build and gain new multi -capacity properties.
This housing funds will be necessary in the tense real estate market in Los Angeles, where the average rents exceeds 3000 dollars per month, and the home of one medium family goes to nearly one million dollars. But unlike Fema, which can start spending money from the main disaster fund once the president declares a disaster, HUD needs an explicit permission from Congress to start a recovery program for every new catastrophe. The spokesman Johnson now suggests that he wants to see California agreeing to “conditions” before he gave Hud a gesture, and he told reporters earlier this month that “we have to make sure that there are guarantees on the precious treasure of the American people.”
Without this additional HUD money, it will be difficult for California to follow the type of long -term recovery that experts believe is necessary after climate disasters such as Los Angeles fires. The state may be able to find money in its own treasures to compensate for a delay in critical aid fund The dollar he received from HUD to the CAMP FIRE 2018 fire. Los Angeles is not one of the most expensive places in the country to build a house, but California has just finished closing the budget deficit with more than $ 50 billion, leaving him a little money to spare it.
Labovitz says Congress has led to the passage of HUD Aid before. For example, legislators took until December 2024 to give the agency’s authority to spend money on Forest Forestry MauiAnd that occurred in August 2023. But despite the threats of Johnson and the other republics, it was possible that lawmakers will eventually send aid money, if only to ensure that Democrats are not blocked by disasters like Texas and Florida in the future.
“We have a federal infrastructure that finds a way to make itself work most of the time,” she said. “Usually for the largest disasters, the system finds a way to work to provide assistance.”
