Trending

When will a vital system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean collapse? Depends on whom you ask.

Lower Greenland, there is a threatened extension of water known as the cold point. With the high temperature of the planet, the cold point remains out of the frightening-which is placed directly above the area as the conveyor belt is supposed to float in the Atlantic Ocean and head south.

For a short period of time, the Atlantic length stream, or Amoc, includes a huge system of currents that carry water and nutrients all over the world and plays a major role in stabilizing the global climate. For years, scholars have to caution Amoc was slowing down, and perhaps about to collapse. The cold point is the most visible guide immediately as it declines, and this is likely to be the result of the iceberg in Greenland, but research on the power of the deep water stream in recent years has varied greatly.

New studies published in Geological nature Last week and in nature Earlier this year, it provides some slightly encouraging news. David Bonan, a post -PhD fellow at the University of Washington, who was a major author in the Nature Geoscience study, said that Amoc’s decline may be “a slow and gradual change, not an immediate change.” The complete collapse of the current of this century may not be reached, not around the mid -century sign as expected by other research.

The risks cannot be higher. If the current erupted, the most exciting predictions of fear describe the world I was thrown In chaos: drought can destroy India, South America and Africa; The eastern coast of the United States will see a dramatic sea level. The cold spread to the Arctic throughout Europe.

“You cannot adapt to this,” said Peter Detlelvsen, co -author of the 2023 study and a researcher for ice and climate at Copenhagen University. In an interview with Inside climate news. “There are some studies on what is happening for cultivation in Great Britain, and it becomes like an attempt to grow potatoes in northern Norway.”

The gradual change will continue to cause a tremendous revolution, but it gives the world more time to make efforts to mitigate.

Part of what makes Amoc very difficult is that the consistent monitoring of the current did not start until 2004, so historical data is limited. When researchers operate models to examine the Amoc behavior in the past, they sometimes get confused results. “The new models are not working for Amoc,” said David Thornali, a Tamil disease specialist at College University in London, who has not participated in the latest research. “Some people may say that we do not know 100 percent what amoc did during the twentieth century.”

February study in nature I found that the current was more stable than expected. The wind in the southern ocean cuts the northern pole water to the surface and sent it north again. The research showed that Amoc slows between 20 to 80 percent by 2100, but does not completely collapse. This is Obviously a Pretty Big Range, and “Even a Moderate Weakening Coupouch Rainfall Patterns, Sea Level Rise, and the Ocean’s Ability to Take Up Carbon,” Said Jonathan Baker, LEAD Author of the Study and a Senior Scientist in the Ocean, Cryosphere, and Climate Group at the Met Office, The Weather Service for the Uk Between 2009 and 2010, Amoc Wobbled – Slow About 30 percent – 5 -inch sea levels rose between New York City and Newfoundland within a year.

The latest study in geophysical science has narrowed those of 18 to 43 percent by 2100 after investigating how previous models were made. Models that predict an imminent collapse tend to assume that Amoc is somewhat strong at the present time, extending to large depths inside the ocean and forcing warm surface water in the depths of the sea. The models that provided the current were weaker, with shallow arrival in the deep ocean, less affected by the water surface.

Amoc
Nalini Lepetit-Challa and Sabrina Blaanchard / Getty

He said Bonan and his team found that North Atlantic “is a little more than these weakest models.” If you warm the surface [water]Or if you increase the melting of marine ice or the melting of Greenland snow, it is possible that many of these surface properties in the upper ocean remain, rather than moving to the ocean. “

However, Bonan highlighted the need for more advanced models that may be able to better predict the interactions between ice and surrounding sheets. He said that Thornali emphasized these concerns – without the advanced modeling of the water that is launched from Greenland, these studies may paint a very pink image. He said: “If you look at what all models do after 2100, many of them continue to collapse.”

One of the problem is that Amoc’s drop -down date is that researchers still do not understand when the current may reach The turning pointThe threshold, when crossing it, will have a consecutive effect, there is no return from it. If the current dies a slower or faster death, it will not matter in the long run if the world violates that threshold. “It is a good study,” said Thornali. “Does it make me quieter around the future? No.”


Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button