Who Will Win Best Picture

This year’s Oscars didn’t start off particularly well, but as the nominations approached, its reputation changed. The late duet of evil and Completely anonymous He added star power to the race. Hit the festival concave It became an actual hit. Article He followed up its surprise box office success with an even more surprising and successful run through the precursors. Love it or hate it, movie like Emilia Perez Becoming a top contender is something that could only have happened in the past five years. The Oscars are more exotic and global than ever, and we’re all better off for it.

It’s become a cliche to note that after a few seasons when the Best Picture winner is In fact, this year’s race is up in the air. This remains true: I think there are five, or maybe even six, films that have a chance of winning the big prize. While various precursors have helped focus this field, some major categories remain in a state of flux. (If anyone can find out what’s going on Supporting actress(We should put them in charge of international diplomacy.) As I always say, these are the Oscars, not a machine that tabulates the guild’s results, so we should expect some surprises. Here’s who I see going into the eight biggest categories in Thursday’s Oscar nominations.

Anora
Brutal
Completely anonymous
concave
Sand Dunes: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Real pain
Singing singing
Article
evil

This race has a clear upper class of Anora, Brutal, Completely anonymous, concaveand Emilia Perez. All were nominated for Best Film at the BAFTAs, and all saw their directors recognized by the DGA. next to Brutaleveryone They were nominated for a SAG Award, and Anora and Completely anonymous He also registered with the WGA. (The other three couldn’t be nominated because they weren’t written by guild members.) Having appeared almost everywhere they were eligible, these are the five we probably would have seen in the good old days of the Best Picture category.

BrutalThe SAG seat has been filled at SAG eviland the film’s brutal box office take on Broadway makes it seem like a Best Picture lock like the films mentioned above. Another big bomb, Sand Dunes: Part Tworecently looked in danger of falling out of the running, but the sci-fi sequel has raised fans’ hopes with a good showing at the PGAs and BAFTAs. It also reached the top ten in the Producers Guild Article and Real paintwo films about the struggle with those who share your blood, and they benefit from highlighting the supposed front-runners in the acting races.

This leaves only one slot. At the PGAs, 10th place went to September 5but the journalistic drama has otherwise failed to make much headway, and it fits the mold of the mediocre contender that producers love more than the Oscars. If the Academy goes ahead with its recent authorship push, the final candidate could be Rammell Ross. Nickel Boysthe movie challenge that won He raved about the arrogance of the first person. but, Nickel Boys It’s been overlooked by unions like the American Society of Cinematographers, so I’m leaning toward another prison movie: Singing singing. The A24 drama also missed out on major guild nominations, but two of its shows received significant attention in their precursors, and they carry a warmer message that could suit the Academy’s taste more.

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
sean baker, Anora
edward berger, concave
brady corbett, Brutal
Coralie Fargate, Article

Four directors have appeared in each major prequel. Audiard is a former Palme d’Or winner, and his film was catnip for international voters. Baker is a well-made independent darling. Berger is an arty European who gives the airport novel some panache. And Corbett is the conscious heir to the New Hollywood filmmakers of the 1970s who spent their weekends dealing with Great controversy in the 1920s. Joining them in the DGA nominations was Completely anonymousJames Mangold, but since his movie isn’t personal, I think he’ll drop out. Given the recent history of the Best Director category, the safest bet for its replacement is an international auteur whose film premiered at Cannes, and fortunately, we have two options: ArticleCoralie Fragit and All we imagine is lightPayal Kapadia. Since India did not provide a light For international film, Kapadia’s screening received a lot of attention as the only way her film would be recognized, but I think the power of the Best Picture spotlight will ultimately draw it to Fargate. Ramil Ross It’s worth mentioning here too, although industry bodies haven’t had much difficulty yet Nickel Boys As did groups of critics.

adrian brody, Brutal
timothy Chalamet, Completely anonymous
daniel craig, gay
colman domingo, Singing singing
ralph fiennes, concave

In the thinner major category, Brody, Chalamet and Fiennes are contenders for Best First Class Picture, while Domingo makes the most of his late-life transformation from character actor to leading man. All are former Oscar nominees: Fiennes is the only one to have been nominated twice, while Brody is the only one to have won. (Chalamet could break his record as the youngest ever Best Actor winner this year.) Craig may be vulnerable, given that Luca Guadagnino’s romance baffled as many viewers as it fascinated them. However, he has a huge profile in the industry, a compelling story, and nominations from the Globes and SAG Awards, so I’m unwavering. Sebastian Stan is waiting in the wings, but he’s campaigning for two movies at the same time, and voters can’t seem to decide between his performances in the dark drama. A different man And Trump’s autobiography trainee.

cynthia erivo, evil
Carla Sophia Gascón, Emilia Perez
marian jean baptiste, Hard facts
mickey madison, Anora
demi moore, Article

Two weeks ago I’ve compared this category to a cage matchAnd it didn’t get any easier. But the upper class had consolidated. Gascón and Madison hit the ground running at Cannes, two exciting new faces leading films that should be competing for Best Picture. Erivo carried the biggest hit in the fall with her multiple talents: acting, singing and Space contract. Moore was added later as critics slowly came to terms with the reality of this Article It was already awards film, but after her Golden Globe win, she now seems to be the presumptive favorite.

It appears that three women are vying for the last place. I chose critics’ favourite, Jean-Baptiste, on the basis that I couldn’t imagine anyone watching her violent transformation. Hard facts and no Vote for her. But it faces strong competition from Brazil Fernanda Torres I’m still herewho got a late boost with a surprise Golden Globe win, and Pamela Anderson The last showgirlwhose comeback was strong enough to earn a SAG nomination for small-format independent film. Their offers are No less It was critically acclaimedso this spot will likely hit the wire.

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, Real pain
edward Norton, Completely anonymous
guy pearce, Brutal
jeremy strong, trainee

Once Kieran Culkin With this thing sewn, there was no need for such a flashy competitor The second wrestlerDenzel Washington is in the running. Instead, early voters decided that Culkin’s backing band should be a group of second players. Borisov, Norton and Pierce are able to lead the acting contenders, while Strong rides Stan’s coattails. junior tender. (Although it could be argued that he is modeling Culkin, his former counterpart succession Co-star, just as much.) Washington is still popular enough to jump in if one of these guys stumbles, but beware of SJ SinghClarence McLeanplays a fictionalized version of himself, who takes over the film from Colman Domingo.

jamie Lee Curtis, The last showgirl
ariana grande, evil
felicity jones, Brutal
isabella Rossellini, concave
zoe saldaña, Emilia Perez

Even at this late date, only Grande and Saldaña seem to have secured a place in our most open acting race. (The power of musicals!) Other than that, we get to choose from a range of great shows. After receiving SAG and BAFTA nominations for Late Night Another showgirlCurtis’s leathery turn is closing in on an Oscar nomination, riding on her recent momentum Everything everywhere at once wins. Jones and Rossellini are more inconsistent, having both been overlooked by SAG, and each has an obvious drawback: Rossellini gives a mostly silent performance; Jones doesn’t appear until the second half of Brutalwhich is generally considered more disadvantageous. However, I think their films are strong enough to push them forward, especially since Jones is a previous nominee, while Rossellini, like Curtis two years ago, is one of the kings of cinema and has never been recognized by the Academy before.

still, Completely anonymous It ramps up at the right time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monica Barbaro’s Joan Baez appear here. Danielle deadwyler is a standout in Piano lessonalthough August Wilson’s adjustment did not live up to preseason expectations. (Personally, I prefer either of them over Curtis.) International voters love it Emilia Perezwhich may attract Selena Gomez to Saldaña’s side. In such an unstable race, ArticleMargaret Qualley could be riding on Demi Moore’s coattails. Pump it!

sean baker, Anora
brady corbett and mona fastvold, Brutal
jesse eisenberg, Real pain
Coralie Fargate, Article
justin Kuritzkes, United

As the Oscars field becomes more global, Oscar nominations have lost some of their luster as predictors. The guild excludes unwritten scripts under its negotiating agreement, which includes most foreign films and some Indian films. This leaves the BAFTA Awards as our best indicator Patella join Anora, Brutal, Real painand Article In this category. Although the biopic of the Irish hip-hop musician may be beloved in some quarters, I have a hard time seeing it becoming a big thing at the Oscars. Mike Leigh’s previous five nominations in this category are: Hard facts Possible alternative. But Lee couldn’t make it to the BAFTAs in his hometown, which leads me to believe Uniteda WGA filter that suits the academy branch’s cool taste for kids, has more juice. if September 5 Instead, this may be a sign of its final Best Picture spot.

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
jocelyn barnes and ramelle ross, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley and Greg Quidar Singing singing
jay cox and james mangold, Completely anonymous
peter Straughan, concave

The top heavyweights are evenly split between screenplay categories this year, which should make for some exciting races. concave, Completely anonymousand Emilia Perez Fill out the top of this category, and choose two contenders for the Best Bubble Picture Award to complete it. There is a chance for that evilStrong enough to get in here too – remember, 1917 You get a scenario nod – in which case you’ll likely bump into either Singing singing or Nickel Boys Didn’t make it into the picture. But when they were all competing at BAFTA, the musical was an oddity, and as the Brits would have preferred otherwise evilThis seems telling.