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president Donald Trump You will receive several billion dollars in funds and support from Congress And leaders of the border states to complete the wall. But the important point is not whether he will complete the wall during his second term.
The question should be: Will the border wall work when it is completed?
The answer is an unequivocal no. There are a lot of issues involved.
A border wall will not reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the United States, and may even have the opposite effect. Additionally, it will not prevent drugs and contraband from entering the United States
Nearly a quarter of the 46.2 million people living in the United States in 2022 who were born in another country, or about 11.7 million people, are undocumented immigrants. These are the immigrants Trump wants to deport.
But Trump appears not to know that more than two-fifths (40%) of these illegal immigrants, or nearly 4.7 million, have overstayed their visas.
Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images
They entered the United States on lawful passports and lawful visas, but either stayed past the expiration dates of their visas or violated the terms of their admission to the United States, perhaps by accepting work.
Most of them traveled legally from Asia, Europe and other continents, entering major airports in San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Houston and elsewhere. Trump’s border wall will not be high enough to keep them out.
I don’t think Trump currently has any plans to address the visa overstay issue. At least, I haven’t heard of any. US Department of Homeland Security It does not match the entry and exit records of people coming into and leaving the United States
Congress passed an electronic entry-exit system more than 25 years ago, but it was not implemented due to objections from the tourism industry and other groups.
A biometric entry and exit system would monitor most people entering and exiting the United States, and would reduce the number of visa overstayers. But implementing such a system does not appear to be in Trump’s plans.
He just wants to complete the wall.
The seven million illegal immigrants in the United States who have not overstayed their visas are officially referred to by demographers and immigration officials as EWIs, people who “entered without inspection.”
They entered the United States undetected or used false documents when crossing the border. Almost all of them entered through the U.S.-Mexico border, and until recently most were from Mexico. Now, most of them are from Central America.
Demographers have conducted extensive research on EWIs. They are not criminals, and they do not take jobs from native-born Americans.
Almost all EWIs end up in jobs that Americans don’t want to do. These are the 3D jobs, the dirty, dangerous and degrading jobs. Demographers have found little, if any, evidence that EWIs harm or inhibit the employment or wages of local residents.
In his first speech in 2017 before a joint session of Congress, Trump stated that EWIs cost the United States “several billion dollars annually.” But this is not true.
About half of EWIs pay taxes. Millions of them file tax returns every year, paying for benefits they are not allowed to use.
The American Immigration Council recently reported that in 2022, households led by undocumented immigrants paid $75.6 billion in total taxes. And they probably won’t get any back in Social Security and Medicare payments.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
What about the wall that prevents violent criminals from entering the United States? Trump stated in 2015 that his wall would prevent criminals, drug dealers, and rapists from entering the United States
Extensive criminological research has repeatedly shown that foreign-born people have much lower crime rates than those born in the United States.
Why won’t a border wall prevent EWIs? Only the strongest and luckiest people attempt to cross.
Demographers have studied the “selectivity” of migration. They show that with Trump’s wall, the journey to the United States will become more dangerous, and many migrants will fail. But in the end most of them will succeed.
Trump’s wall will not keep this strong-willed, motivated, and talented population out of this country. Trump’s wall will result in immigrants settling and staying in the United States, and not returning to their countries of origin.
Drugs? It is easy to dismiss this argument because most illicit drugs do not enter the United States through people sneaking across the border.
Researchers at the Brookings Institution have shown that most drugs smuggled into the United States do not arrive at the expense of those who cross the border illegally.
The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration has reported for several years that Mexican drug cartels bring the bulk of their drugs across the southern border through ports of entry via trucks, passenger vehicles and tractor-trailers.
Trump says his wall will work because border walls have worked elsewhere. He pointed out that the Great Wall of China is an example of the success of a physical barrier.
No, it took nearly 2,000 years to build the Wall of China – which is actually a series of walls – at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. But China’s walls did not prevent foreigners from entering.
The Mongols entered China despite the walls and ruled China in the Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368), and the Manchus entered China around the walls and ruled China in the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). In fact, almost all of the world’s famous walls either didn’t work or didn’t work.
I expect that if Trump’s wall is completed, within 10 years there will be at least as many EWIs as there are now (6 to 7 million), and perhaps several million more.
This means that along with the 5 million visa overstayers, there will be more than 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, most of whom will become part of the permanent resident population.
Therefore, investing several billion dollars to complete the construction of the wall to keep people out of the United States will be sufficient Keep people in US.
Trump’s wall, if completed, will not work.
Dudley L. Poston Jr. is professor emeritus of sociology at Texas A&M University.
All opinions expressed are the author’s own.
