Welcome to FiveThirtyEight Political chat. The text below has been edited slightly.
Maya (Maya Swidler(Senior Editor): The first Republican debate last Wednesday included eight candidates, and none of them were the leaders. Former President Donald Trump chose to skip the debate, Write on He wrote on his social media site that “the public knows who I am and what a successful presidency I have had.”
In his absence, the other candidates… well, what did the other candidates do, and was it effective? Some members of the FiveThirtyEight team are here to discuss Trump’s decision, whether it was the right decision for him and whether he would be well served by making a similar decision in the September debate.
Let’s start with what happened last week. How did Trump’s absence from the debate appear?
nrakich (Nathaniel RakicSenior Election Analyst: It didn’t happen!
The candidates generally refrained from mentioning or attacking Trump at all, with some notable exceptions of anti-Trump candidates like former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But they attacked him for his accusations and disrespect for the Constitution, not for skipping the debate.
Monica Potts (Monica PottsChief Political Correspondent: I was honestly surprised by how little came of it. The main question was whether all the candidates on stage would support the eventual nominee, with the firm assumption that it might be Trump despite the indictments, and neither Hutchinson nor Christie said they would. They criticized the former president throughout their election campaigns, so this was no surprise. It also sparked boos from the audience.
So, in many ways, Trump was there without being there.
Meredithconroy (Meredith Conroypolitical science professor at California State University, San Bernardino, and FiveThirtyEight contributor): Well, if the question is how the other candidates talked about his absence, you’re both right. They didn’t. But his absence was still felt and noticeable. We know that it forced other candidates to rethink their strategies. And by some reports (and their campaigns so far as well), it looked like the non-Trump candidates were going to attack each other or President Biden, but not Trump. I think we’ve seen more direct criticism of Trump without him on stage from former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and Christie. I also think the “atmosphere” was different. I can’t go back in time, put him on stage, and see what the sentiment would be with him there, but there was more air for Republicans to argue their issues, and I think they did that convincingly — with some exceptions. naturally.
Maya: If you were Trump watching Fox on August 23, how would you feel about your odds of winning? Better or worse, having seen your competitors on stage?
Meredith Conroy: If I were Trump (or his campaign), I think I would advise against going to the first debate. Trump had nothing to directly gain from participating. But by sitting out, he opened the door for other candidates to take up more space and attack him without a response (although businessman Vivek Ramaswamy seemed keen to play Trump’s defender). But I’ll look at it and I think I’m a little worse off after the discussion. Not just because of the polls Just like FiveThirtyEight did with IpsosThis shows, conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel (the share of debate watchers considering him fell by about 5 percentage points), but also because other candidates are in the news cycle and gaining fame and credibility.
Nrakesh: right. According to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos pollFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy all delivered strong performances in the eyes of Republican primary voters following the election.
However, if I were Trump, I would actually be pretty confident about my chances. He is ahead by 35 percentage points Our national polling averageBecause of crying out loud. One debate won’t change that, no matter how successful Haley or DeSantis is.
Monica Potts: That’s right, Nathaniel. Trump has also always followed a different playbook than most candidates. We can’t forget his anti-programming with Tucker Carlson interview. In addition, A Morning opinion poll The one released Tuesday showed that likely Republican primary voters found him more electable after the debate. 62% said he had the best chance of beating Biden, an increase of 9 points from the previous week.
Nrakesh: However, our poll with The Washington Post and Ipsos found that only 7% of primary voters who missed the debate watched Carlson’s interview.
Meredith Conroy: Whoever missed the debate to meet Trump was him Most ardent supporters. But I’m glad you brought up his interview with Carlson, Monica. Because you’re right, it’s not like he sits back and watches this race happen. He has his own rules of the game, and his supporters still get enough.
Nrakesh: Trump is not sitting back and watching the race happen; he He is Race.
Meredith Conroy: Yes! I don’t disagree with that. I think he could stumble and fall (or is he the arena in this metaphor?), given how polarized he is, even within his own party. It is important that he has absolutely no viable competitors!
…A thousand political scientists are now hanging their heads in shame at my assessment. ВЃЯШÐД
Maya: Why, Meredith?
Meredith Conroy: Just based on the state of things that political scientists study and say is important Huge lead in the pollsthe Republican Party base has shifted to Trump’s party (even without Trump)the The support he receivedfor him Campaign funds …All of this points to Trump’s candidacy.
Oh, and the fact that political science scholarship finds Discussions hardly matter. ÐВЃЯШÐÐ’â€
Nrakesh: Just ask Rick Perry what he thinks about that. ВЃЯШЫ
Meredith Conroy: Ooops.
Maya: Is there any downside to postponing the September debate as well?
What is the benefit of having a national platform such as a discussion platform in this case? Fox has had a discussion Nearly 13 million viewersaccording to the network.
Monica Potts: I don’t think there’s any downside to skipping it. This will likely allow his opponents to grab some headlines. But with his accusations and his responses to them, he remains in the news and in the spotlight. for him Surrender to Georgian authorities It was treated almost like a campaign stop. These things will only strengthen his support among die-hard Trump supporters. The unknown is what the most persuasive voters will think, but that seems more like a question for the general than for the primary.
Nrakesh: If I were advising Trump, I would be really unsure about what to recommend for future debates. According to a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, Trump lost potential support among Republican debate watchers — before the debate, 66% said they were considering voting for him, but afterward, that number dropped to 61%. This isn’t a big deal after just one debate, but it is if you skip it everyone From the discussions, it’s starting to snowball, right? (Of course, there is no guarantee that he will lose the same amount of support after each debate. And we are only talking about debate watchers here.)
However, the risk of appearing to have a bad argument that’s worse for your numbers is real.
Meredith Conroy: There are downsides – its closest rival continues to gain strength, staying power, etc. But I agree that the risk of showing up and having a bad debate is the bigger threat, so I would probably advise staying out. He can continue to do his own events, like meeting Carlson, in her stead.
Nrakesh: I think the trump card is fair, will the other candidates attack him one way or another if he appears?
Before I get into the discussion, I was going to agree with what you said earlier, Meredith, which is that sitting out makes it easier for others to attack him. But they didn’t do that. Now I wonder if his presence on stage will actually make them attack him more. In this case, yes, he should sit down.
Monica Potts: Although nothing seems “bad” it seems to have a bad effect on Trump, so I don’t know what a bad debate performance might do either. Since starting his first presidential race, it would have been expected that any number of events, such as the Access Hollywood tape, would end his campaign/career, but that didn’t happen. He has been criminally charged four times and is still leading in the polls.
Meredith Conroy: Totally agree with that, Monica. I’ll be more interested to see how his presence affects the tone of the debate, whether that shift in tone carries over into the race, and whether it works to his advantage.
Nrakesh: Except I don’t think that’s true, Monica! Just because Trump has not lost his front-runner status does not mean he is immune to fluctuations in the polls. There is actually early evidence that the discussion is being skipped an act I hurt him financially. Three opinion polls – Emerson College, Morning consultation and Insider feature – National primary polls were conducted in the week before and the week after the debate, and Trump’s support fell by an average of 4 percentage points.
Maya: So even if the candidates attack him, do we have reason to believe that it will have a material impact on how Republicans view him?
Meredith Conroy: So, I think the perceptions about Trump are pretty clear at this point, and even if he spoils the debate, it’s going to take a long time An imagined vision of his personality You will still prevail. But I wonder if there is a significant portion of primary voters who see it as inevitable but would turn away from it if they saw a viable alternative. Maybe it’s not enough, though. Perhaps there are too many options that cannot be coordinated (such as 2016).
Monica Potts: Well, Meredith, I think that’s what it’s going to take. In theory, the debates could help someone become the candidate around whom all the Trump skeptics rally, but there’s still a big gap for them to make up, even if Trump loses some ground by skipping the debates.
Nrakesh: According to a New York Times analysis of it Survey with Siena College37% of Republican primary voters are strong Trump supporters, while another 37% are persuadable. (The remaining 25% is not open to Trump.) This suggests that although he has a floor of support, he also has a lot to lose. I don’t think Trump would want to end up in a primary where he has 37% support nationally and someone like DeSantis or Ramaswamy gets, say, 30%. This is dangerous territory for him. And this is not so crazy To think that could happen if Trump keeps skipping debates and DeSantis or Ramaswamy keeps winning them.
I don’t know. I think he can continue to skip discussions until he drops below a certain threshold of support. But it is risky in both cases.
Maya: Since this is a Slack conversation and we’re not sticking to the normal rules, I’ll ask everyone to try this number! When should Trump start appearing in debates?
Nrakesh: Less than 40 percent nationally, perhaps?
Because his approval rating was averaging 54% a few days before the August debate (and has now dropped to 50%), this would represent a significant and sustained decline.
Meredith Conroy: Yes, I think Nathaniel is 40 percent right.
Nrakesh: Where other candidates also matter. It’s very different if he’s at 39 percent and DeSantis is at 30 percent than if he’s at 39 percent and everyone else is in the single digits.
Monica Potts: If I were a Republican primary voter, I would say he should have been present at the first debate to answer questions and participate in the democratic process! But if the perspective of his campaign is to avoid losing ground, then Nathaniel and Meredith seem right.
Nrakesh: Oh, yeah, to be perfectly clear: From the perspective of having a robust debate and keeping voters as informed as possible, Trump should absolutely attend all the debates.
Maya: But if we’re talking in terms of winning… well, the math is a little different.
However, we will be keeping an eye on the debate stage in September, and Trump’s national average!
