Europe must stand without the US – but the latest war in the Middle East shows it has no idea how | Nathalie Tocci
R.It has been torn in the Atlantic relationship that has left European leaders struggling to learn how to think, not to mention behavior, with any independence. Europe He needs urgent mind on its own in the Middle East.
Dramatically, European Union governments have just begun at the heart of the page after a year and a half of collusion with the crimes of the Israeli war in Gaza. Donald Trump’s outrageous planned for Gaza “Riviera” The “humanitarian” initiatives that violate humanitarian principles were created a distance with the United States, and European governments began to formulate their own path.
It was France and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Conference planning In the two -state solution, which may have led to Paris’s recognition of the Palestinian state. More importantly, the European Union was I accepted a review From the European Union Association for Israel, which, in light of the crimes of the Israeli war, should lead to the suspension of the preferential trade of the European Union with Tel Aviv, but now it may not.
However, Israel’s military attack on Iran and the mysterious US support, but it is clear to this hostility, has turned against Europe’s transformation towards more independence and moral clarity.
Of course, there is no love for the Iranian regime in the capitals of the European Union due to human rights violations and military cooperation with Russia, especially in the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Europe remains truly designed that Iran should not have nuclear weapons. There is more alert to the International Atomic Energy Agency Modern report On Iran’s violations of the non -proliferation treaty.
But we stood traditionally firmly needed to solve the Iranian nuclear question through diplomacy. For this reason, European negotiators invented in the early first decade of the twentieth century “E3/Eu”, which includes diplomats from France, Germany and the United Kingdom, along with the high representative of the European Union to mediate the Iranian nuclear file.
Today this world went. When Trump launched direct negotiations with Iran, Europe was marginalized, excluding any mediation. Now, with Israel’s military attack on Iran, we failed to put ourselves with the necessary clarity: where was the condemnation of the bombing as a violation of the United Nations Charter (Article 2), and the additional protocol to the Geneva Conventions (Article 56), which specifically prohibits attacks on the state nuclear sulfate? It is one thing to support the right of Israel (or any other country) to self -defense. Completely to give legitimacy to pre -emptive strikes.
This chronic deficit arises because Europe traditionally looked at the world through a lens across the Atlantic. In most international issues, it has worked for decades with Washington, using aid, trade, diplomacy, sanctions, defense and the integration of the European Union to support the goals of American foreign policy, convinced to share comprehensive values and interests.
Only on rare occasions, European countries have publicly opposed the United States-as France and Germany did with the Bush administration about the US-led war on Iraq in 2003. Even when there is a difference in the approach, Europe has sought to influence US foreign policy by eliminating its solid edges rather than frustrating it. For example, European mediation on the issue of Iranian nuclear weapons led to a joint comprehensive action plan in 2015. Since global competition between the United States and China has deepened, European Union governments have distanced from the United States from dismantling Western and Chinese economies, and instead enhance the most soft alternative to “competition”.
However, Trump’s foreign policy football has created a world that Europeans should stand on their feet. They are struggling.
on UkraineEurope has learned the difficult way and stands constant, and maintains Kyiv’s financial and military assistance while exploring the ways to fill the gaps in the event of a decomposition.
But regardless of Ukraine, we are confused. It is true that Europe has stressed Beijing. The eyes are no longer around China Belt and Road Initiative The strategic risks posed by Beijing policies in Europe. The European Union began examining Chinese investments in Europe and High tariff On Chinese electric cars.
But Trump’s mixed signals mean that Europe needs to know alone what you think and want from Beijing. The European Union cannot buy a trade war on multiple fronts, especially if its private trade conversations with Washington are hindering.
European governments also know that there is no way to meet climate neutrality by 2050, which has now been devoted to law, without cooperating with China, and is a leader in the green economy. Even in the case of a comprehensive “deal” between Trump and Shi Jinping, it is difficult to imagine that the Europeans return to the old days that China only considered an economic partner and an ally in defending pluralism. Europeans need to develop their ideas and policies independently of the irregular White House, but they do not know how to get there.
In its political garage at the end of the war, Europe did not win, thanks to Washington and did not improve its position with Israel. Meanwhile, all its credibility was lost as a honest mediator with Iran. Cherry on the cake is that Russia has an angle itself as a potential medium instead, with Trump’s colleagues in this unusual proposal.
The dangers are that Europe will now prevent its own path to a more morally moral approach to terror in Gaza: it will tell the coming days whether the European Union suspends its trade agreement with Israel, or if this is also placed on the back stove.
Ukraine is the first security interest in Europe. However, the war, chaos and nuclear spread in the Middle East-which could be the unwanted result of the Israel war-Iran-is more dependent for the United States. So far, the European response is far from thought or work, regardless of the United States.
