A brutal extension of the harsh weather has imposed taxes on communities on the sidelines of Tornado in this spring and early summer, while the harsh cuts of employees and budget restrictions forced federal meteorologists to try to predict the massacre with less data.
As of June 30, there were already more than 1,200 hurricanes in the country.
More than 60 people died due to hurricanes this year, most of them It focused on the Mississippi Valley About 500 miles east of the heart of the “hurricane alley” in Kansas, Aklalahoma and Texas. This unusual shift in the east may make the outbreak of hurricane more dangerous, making it close to people more than populated plains.
In addition to hurricanes, it was also a stressful year for sudden floods.
On June 14, More than three inches of rain fell in just half an hour In West Virginia, she washed a young boy and pushed the feverish emergency rescue in two provinces in the northern part of the state. according to National Weather Service StatisticsIntensive rain can only be expected once every thousand years in a stable climate.
As the weather exacerbated, there were fewer federal scientists to alert the public.
Discounts in weather service by Trump and the so -called “Ministry of Governmental efficiency” (Doug) Local prediction offices have left NWS suffering from a lack of consideration Throughout severe weather this year. In April, it was reported that an internal document described how the discounts could create “mode”Rennted operations Close basic services one by one until it reaches a balance that does not outperform its remaining employees.
The variable climate also makes weather disasters simultaneously more likely, Such as the overlap of hurricanes and sudden floods Creating difficulties in emergency situations and double the effects of financing discounts.
Deadly storms earlier this spring In Kentucky and Missouri, heavy rains appeared during the outbreak of a continuous hurricane, a nightmare scenario that requires close attention from emergency managers to avoid people looking for shelter in flood areas. in NWS office in Jackson, KentuckyHowever, the lack of employment means that there was no predictor of service to switch overnight when the storms were at its peak. This year coincides with the first time that local NWS offices expected operations around the clock in the history of the modern agency.
Now, additional meteorologists are given from research roles – where they usually improve technologies and achieve progress for future years – at the front lines of predicting in an attempt to fill the gaps in employment.
“The example of the world for weather services is destroyed,” books Chris Vagasky, meteorologist at the University of Wisconsin, on social media earlier this spring after announcing a round of major changes.
In May, the main computer system that distributes NWS weather alerts to local partners for emergency broadcasts He suffered from a long interruption. By the time when the system returned on the Internet, at least, at least One of the flood warningNear Bokirk, New Mexico and at least One hurricane warningNear Colombia, South Carolina, did not reach the audience.
The decision to collect the foundation data source for officials-weather-colors-to local offices has been postponed, which mainly leads to the launch of twice daily for the employee prediction centers.
In June, The offices that the balloon missed New York, Atlanta, Portland and more than 10 sites in the Middle West. Of 91 launch sites, A little more than 70 sites They were constantly releasing balloons during the peak season of the hurricane in May-a quarter of this important source of data lost.
It is used for the first time in 1896, The release of the weather balloon Still The most important single data type Meteorologists use use. Weather balloons are the only way that meteorologists have to take direct measurements of air pressure, wind, temperature and humidity all over the atmosphere simultaneously in about 1,000 sites around the world-these data form all weather forecasts derived from the computer that appear in the weather applications.
Since the upper atmosphere winds are generally blowing from west to east in the United States, the loss of continuous data may tend to affect weather forecasts in the eastern half of the country more than others – exactly as hurricanes occur frequently.
The whole process is to release the weather balloon NWS employee takes about three hours. Since the balloon launches take a long time and difficulty in automating, they are disposed of in NWS offices with a lack of employment-although they collect basic data.
“At the account of the weather balloons, we prefer to focus our energy on looking at other data that will allow us to be able to give you pre -prediction that it is Surnado”, Susan Fortin, the meteorologist responsible in Omaha NWS He said at a press conference in March Soon after the discounts were announced. “This is why we are attached, so that we can focus on those warnings of life that can keep people safe.”
In May, every former manager in NWS I signed an open message With a warning that, if it continues, Trump’s discounts to predict the federal weather will create a “unnecessary loss of life.”
Despite the two parties Congress reaction To get a recovery and funding for NWS, sharp budget cuts remain at the pace In the 2026 budget expectations For the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the mother organization of NWS. On Monday, to request an annual budget to Congress, NOAA suggested a slight increase in the budget For NWS for the 2026 fiscal year while maintaining deep discounts for the research budget that provides prediction tools.
“The leadership of NOAA takes steps to address those who took the option of voluntary early retirement,” Eric Cruz, a NWS spokeswoman, said in a statement to the Guardian newspaper when asked about employment.
“NWS continues to conduct a short -term temporary job tasks (TDYS), which is in the process of conducting a series of re -setting opportunities (RONS) to fill roles on NWS field sites with the largest operational need.
“In addition, it will soon be announced soon for a number targeted and important field centers under the exception of freezing employment at the department level to increase stability in the front lines operations.”
At the June 5 session in the Capitol Hill, Trade Minister Howard LootnickWhich includes its role to oversee Noaa, and thus NWS, defended the administration’s approach that demands agencies was “full full” and was “transforming how to track storms and predicting weather with advanced technology.”
He said: “Under any circumstances, I will leave public safety or general prediction to be touched.”
. Studies during the past decade It has shown that global heating may work on both the outbreak of hurricane and the conversion of the hurricane season east and earlier in the year. The warmer air can carry more water vapor, making severe rain more intense.
Five of the past six seasons had the number of higher deaths from the Mediterranean. The Tornado season for this year is the second most expensive, and last year was third.
Weather experts generally agree This increase in hurricane activity is partly due to unusually warm temperatures on the Gulf of Mexico, which helped provide the eastern United States with the ingredients needed to form the hurricane. At the same time, New studies indicate This unusual warming in the summer focuses the activity in less days.
NWS expected some of these changes and was planning to unify and update its expected systems to be more responsive to complex emergency situations. but What was supposed to be a multi -year transition Instead, the concept of “mutual aid” has occurred randomly over the past few weeks.
According to climate scientists and public safety experts, all of this adds to more disasters. With the climax of the hurricane season approachingThis is a great concern.
Eric Holthus is the meteorologist and journalist -based journalist in Minnesota
